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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-30T12:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-30T12:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45934/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide and slow (<250 km/s) CME seen to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and to the southeast more brightly and prominently in STEREO A COR2; the source is a likely instability below Active Regions 14427/14428 (~S30), with a slowly varying dimming signature starting after 2026-04-30T10:00Z best viewed in SDO AIA composite imagery, particularly the 304/211/171 Angstrom imager. CME arrival characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 4 to 8 nT near 2026-05-04T04:10Z, a slow gradual rise to above 10 nT, and separation in magnetic field components after 2026-05-04T15:00Z until approximately 2026-05-06T04:00Z. Enhancements in solar wind density and small increases and decreases in velocity and temperature, respectively, were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-04T04:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-05T05:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 77.32 hour(s)
Difference: -24.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-04-30T22:51Z
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